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An Elicitation Procedure for the Generalized Trapezoidal Distribution with a Uniform Central Stage

Department of Engineering Management and Systems Engineering, The George Washington University, Washington, D.C. 20052
Departamento de Dirección y Gestión de Empresas, University of Almería, Almería, Spain
Departamento de Economía Aplicada, University of Almería, Almería, Spain
Departamento de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa, University of Granada, Granada, Spain
dorpjr{at}gwu.edu
scruz{at}ual.es
jgarcia{at}ual.es
rherreri{at}ugr.es

Recent advances in computation technology for decision/simulation and uncertainty analyses have revived interest in the triangular distribution and its use to describe uncertainty of bounded input phenomena. The trapezoidal distribution is a generalization of the triangular distribution that allows for the specification of the modal value by means of a range of values rather than a single point estimate. Whereas the trapezoidal and the triangular distributions are restricted to linear geometric forms in the successive stages of the distribution, the generalized trapezoidal (GT) distribution allows for a nonlinear behavior at its tails and a linear incline (or decline) in the central stage. In this paper we develop two novel elicitation procedures for the parameters of a special case of the GT family by restricting ourselves to a uniform (horizontal) central stage in accordance with the central stage of the original trapezoidal distribution.

Key Words: expert judgment; distribution theory; simulation and uncertainty analysis
History: Received on January 9, 2007. Accepted on July 19, 2007.

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